AGP Executive Report

Wildfire Accountability: Indonesia says it aims to extinguish forest fires within a month, while Komnas HAM investigates the impact on health, water and food security. Residents have sued President Prabowo over toxic haze, and authorities have named more than 200 people and nine companies as suspects. Jakarta has ruled out declaring a national disaster for now; Singapore is reviewing whether to pursue legal action over the cross-border pollution. Investment and the Budget: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara is promoting fiscal credibility and a deficit below 3% of GDP to attract investors, while calling for more private capital in development projects. The 2027 budget targets 6% growth. Defense Ties: Indonesia and Russia are seeking deeper cooperation in the defense industry, which Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin said must respect national sovereignty and Indonesia’s independent foreign policy. Bali Fuel Disruption: After days of queues caused by delayed deliveries and surging demand, Bali’s government ordered three days of remote work to help ease fuel distribution.

Fire Crisis: Residents of West Kalimantan have sued President Prabowo and 26 officials, accusing them of failing to protect people from toxic haze. The government is resisting calls to declare a national disaster, while the environment minister says fires should be extinguished within a month. Public Mood: A new SMRC poll found confidence that Indonesia is moving in the right direction has plunged to 47.7%, from 83% when Prabowo took office in 2024. Election Oversight: With KPU and Bawaslu commissioners’ terms ending in April, the selection process is drawing scrutiny over independence and integrity as election rules remain unsettled. Growth and Governance: Nobel laureate James Robinson says Prabowo’s 8% growth target is possible but exceptionally difficult, requiring strong institutions.

Wildfire Response: Prabowo’s government has deployed 60,177 personnel as fires and haze spread, but ruled out declaring a national disaster for now. Environment Minister Jumhur Hidayat aims to extinguish the blazes within a month and plans to remove a legal allowance for small-scale burning. Komnas HAM is urging officials to disclose who is being investigated and held accountable. Fiscal Policy: Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara reaffirmed the commitment to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP, citing fiscal credibility as key to funding government priorities. Political Accountability: Vice President Gibran says criticism of the administration is part of democracy, responding to a report that faults weak coordination and growing concentration of power.**

Wildfire Response: Prabowo has ordered stronger firefighting as 60,177 personnel tackle fires across six provinces, with Central Kalimantan and South Sumatra the priority. The government says 639 hectares remain ablaze, but will not declare a national disaster for now; foreign offers of help have yet to be discussed. Diplomacy: Newly appointed Foreign Minister Arrmanatha Nasir says Indonesia will maintain its non-aligned approach, champion Palestinian statehood and push ASEAN to deliver more for the region as it nears its 60th anniversary. Checks and Balances: Critics say Prabowo’s broad House coalition is weakening scrutiny, pointing to fast-tracked legislation and a 30-minute police-chief confirmation hearing. Separately, the Constitutional Court said it found no convincing proof of Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s foreign diploma, but dismissed a bid to remove him without ruling on the petition’s merits.

Wildfire Response: President Prabowo has made Tanjung Puting National Park a firefighting priority, but thick haze is grounding aircraft and delaying flights. Indonesia says 50 helicopters are on standby and plans to expand its forest ranger corps from 4,500 to 70,000. Indigenous groups have sued the government over months of fires and haze. Regional Pressure: Jakarta has yet to discuss Malaysia’s offer of firefighting help, while Kuala Lumpur plans to raise the crisis at an ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting. Foreign Policy: New Foreign Minister Arrmanatha Nasir says diplomacy should strengthen economic resilience at home. Prabowo and Egypt’s president agreed to pursue a joint investment fund and deepen trade ties. Election Oversight: The government has yet to announce selection teams for the KPU and Bawaslu, despite the deadline.

Egypt Ties: President Prabowo and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi agreed to deepen cooperation in trade, education, defence and maritime affairs, while calling for de-escalation in the Middle East. Forest Fires: Regional haze is intensifying pressure on Jakarta. Malaysia says it is still awaiting Indonesia’s response to its firefighting aid offer, while Indigenous groups are suing Prabowo over months of fires and smoke. Election Rules: Lawmakers are considering tighter candidate-nomination requirements after scrutiny of Vice President Gibran’s diploma case. The dispute has also raised questions about election regulators’ checks and oversight. Labour Policy: Parliament has passed a new employment protection law, including a four-year cap on fixed-term contracts. Supporters say it strengthens job security; businesses have raised concerns about the balance with investment and hiring. Cabinet: Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia has taken on a new coordinating role covering downstream industries and the energy transition, but its authority and purpose remain unclear.

Indonesia–Egypt Relations: President Prabowo Subianto and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi agreed to deepen defence, maritime and education ties, pursue a trade partnership and explore a joint investment fund. They also condemned Israeli settlements and called for de-escalation and Palestinian statehood. Haze Response: Fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan continue to darken skies and disrupt livelihoods. Malaysia says it is still waiting for Indonesia to respond to an offer of firefighting aircraft, helicopters and personnel. Labour Rules: Indonesia’s new labour law tightens wage and layoff rules, drawing support from workers but concern from businesses.

Haze Response: Indonesia says it has deployed more than 60,000 personnel and 48 aircraft to fight fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan, as smoke worsens air quality across the region. Malaysia is discussing joint action, while Indonesian authorities report more than 175,000 respiratory illnesses linked to the haze since August. Prabowo’s Diplomacy: President Prabowo Subianto is due to meet Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Jakarta on Sunday. The leaders are expected to discuss deeper strategic ties and sign agreements on visas, fisheries, statistics and cooperation. Economic Priorities: The government is preparing rice aid for 33.24 million people and monthly wage subsidies for 13.3 million workers, while targeting 6% growth in 2027. Fire Accountability: Indigenous groups have accused the government of gross negligence over the fires, and activists have criticized its absence at a court hearing on the crisis.

Haze Response: Indonesia says talks with Malaysia are under way to coordinate action against forest fires. Authorities reported 437 hotspots nationwide on Friday and deployed 61 aircraft for firefighting and patrols; smoke has prompted school closures in Malaysia. Accountability: Indigenous groups and residents have taken the government to court over its handling of the fires, alleging negligence. Regional Cooperation: Indonesia and Australia have completed the Wirra Jaya Ausindo military exercise in Central Java, involving 125 Indonesian and 77 Australian soldiers. Media Policy: At an ASEAN forum in Bali, Indonesia’s law minister proposed a regional press-council forum to coordinate copyright protections for journalism in the digital era.

Haze and Accountability: Singapore offered firefighting help Saturday as Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim pressed Prabowo for action and regional talks; Malaysian schools closed amid hazardous air. Indonesia’s fires may have burned nearly 896,000 hectares by August, and authorities say 57 companies have been suspended. Residents and Indigenous groups are also suing the government over its handling of the fires. Political Checks: The Constitutional Court rejected challenges to Vice President Gibran’s education credentials, leaving his election win intact. Military Oversight: Plans for six new regional commands have raised concerns about civilian oversight. Separately, 11 people were arrested in an online-gambling raid at military housing, and the TNI vowed sanctions. Land and Food Policy: Prabowo’s government dropped plans to clear forest for rice fields after production exceeded domestic demand.

Wildfire Pressure: Residents in West Kalimantan are suing President Prabowo and other officials, alleging negligence over months of fires. Protests in Jambi and haze-driven school closures in Malaysia have sharpened calls for action; Malaysia’s Anwar says he raised the crisis with Prabowo. Drug Law Reform: The government plans to fast-track changes distinguishing users from dealers and directing drug users to rehabilitation, aiming to ease prison overcrowding. Market Intervention: Sovereign fund Danantara says it may buy shares during a selloff if it sees attractive value, as investors watch for a possible downgrade of Indonesia’s market status. West Papua Dispute: Indonesia formally protested after West Papua was raised at a UN hearing on New Caledonia, asking for the remarks to be ruled out of order and removed from the record. Industrial Push: Prabowo launched 11 downstreaming projects in North Maluku worth a reported US$10.2 billion, part of the government’s drive to expand domestic processing.

Haze Crisis: Fires in Sumatra have disrupted flights, while pollution prompted school closures in parts of Malaysia. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim says President Prabowo agreed to take action; suspected fires in corporate concession areas are also drawing calls for accountability. Downstreaming Push: Prabowo launched 11 Chinese-backed projects worth US$10.2 billion in North Maluku and witnessed Indonesia’s first export of EV batteries made there, advancing his drive to process resources at home. Fiscal Pressure: The government has ordered spending cuts to keep the budget deficit in check amid global turmoil. Anti-Corruption Law: The DPR has fast-tracked the Asset Confiscation Bill, aiming to pass it by December. Supporters see a stronger tool against corruption, while critics warn rushed provisions could invite abuse.

Military Oversight: Eleven civilians were arrested after an alleged online gambling operation was raided at a Jakarta military housing complex, raising fresh questions about security inside military facilities. Industrial Policy: President Prabowo launched Indonesia’s first EV battery exports and inaugurated four downstream projects in North Maluku, with seven more facilities breaking ground as part of a wider industrial push. Budget Pressure: The government has ordered spending cuts to keep the fiscal deficit in check amid global turmoil. Haze and Accountability: Indonesian groups are suing the government over wildfires, alleging gross negligence as smoke affects neighboring countries; Malaysia’s Anwar has contacted Prabowo about the worsening haze. Political Scrutiny: The Constitutional Court rejected a petition challenging Vice President Gibran’s education credentials, leaving him in office.

Wildfire Accountability: Indigenous and civil society groups are suing the government over its handling of fires and haze in West Kalimantan, alleging negligence. President Prabowo and other officials are among the defendants; none attended the opening hearing, which was adjourned to Oct. 21. Digital Policy: Communications Minister Meutya Hafid backed “safety by design” for AI and said TikTok had deactivated nine million underage accounts to comply with Indonesia’s child-protection rules. Constitutional Court: The court rejected a challenge to Vice-President Gibran Rakabuming Raka’s education credentials, upholding the election commission’s verification. Military and Police: Prabowo urged senior TNI and police officers to strengthen professionalism and prioritize intellectual ability in recruitment, amid global risks. Industrial Policy: The government is considering a moratorium on new nickel smelters as oversupply weighs on the sector.

Political Accountability: Indonesia’s Constitutional Court rejected a bid to disqualify Vice-President Gibran over his education credentials. Former anti-graft prosecutor Febrie Adriansyah also went on trial on money-laundering charges; he denies wrongdoing. Environment and Governance: The government says it will halt forest clearing for new rice fields, as a court hears a negligence complaint over fires and haze. Advocacy groups criticized officials for missing the hearing. Industrial Policy: Jakarta is weighing a moratorium on new semi-processed nickel smelters amid a global glut, with Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia calling for a shift toward finished products. Small-Business Support: A planned 50% cut in e-commerce fees will target eligible local micro and small businesses, with rollout expected by the end of October.

Constitutional Court Ruling: Indonesia’s Constitutional Court dismissed petitions seeking to disqualify Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka over education credentials, saying the documentation was incomplete but the court could not annul his already-sworn-in status. Data Governance Overhaul: The DPR approved the One Data Indonesia Bill into law, setting rules on national basic data, security, and public monitoring, and mandating a new coordinating body to run the system. Forest-to-Rice Policy Shift: Indonesia said it will halt forest clearing for rice expansion after reaching self-sufficiency, pivoting to intensification with better seeds and focusing on rice reserves. Education Push: President Prabowo ordered plans for free public schooling from kindergarten to secondary and a phased rollout of tuition-free state universities, aiming to reduce household education burdens. Rubber Downstreaming Pressure: Parliament heard calls from rubber farmers and industry on the Rubber Downstreaming Program 2029 as production, productivity, and processing capacity continue to slide. Trade & MSMEs: The trade ministry urged MSMEs to adopt barcodes to enter modern retail networks, partnering with GS1 Indonesia for certification. Carbon Market Incentives: Indonesia is offering carbon market incentives for green projects, including low-emission agriculture, waste-to-energy, and blue carbon, to attract investment and cut emissions.